Hi everyone. I’m Stephanie LI.
大家好，我是主持人李瑩亮。
Coming up on today’s program.
重點提要
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China's GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2023;
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Chinese authorities will impose export controls on key materials for chipmaking next month.
Here’s what you need to know about China in the past 24 hours
中國經濟要聞
China's GDP is expected to grow 5.4 percent in 2023, according to a report by the Bank of China Research Institute released on Monday.
The global services sector recovered steadily in the second quarter of this year and the trend will continue in the third quarter.
The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth has increased, and China's GDP grew by 4.5 percent in the first quarter and 6 percent in the second quarter. GDP is expected to grow by around 4.9 percent in the third quarter, according to the report.
Driven by pro-consumption policies and the accelerated release of service consumption, consumption is expected to maintain moderate recovery.
Infrastructure investment will continue to grow rapidly, investment in high-tech industries will support investment growth, and the real eState market is expected to gradually bottom out and recover.
As economic recovery continues, the banking sector is taking the initiative to increase support for the real economy and steadily increase the size of its assets and liabilities.
Bank industry's business development pays equal attention to quantity and efficiency, actively adapting to the downward trend of LPR, and the overall profit remains stable.
China's bank industry continued to strengthen the ability to cope with risks, and asset quality continued to improve.
The country's bank industry also strengthened the ability to replenish diversified capital and consolidate the foundation for risk prevention and control.
7月3日，中國銀行研究院發布《2023年三季度經濟金融展望報告》（以下簡稱《報告》），回顧了2023年上半年全球和中國經濟金融運行以及全球銀行業運行情況，展望了2023年下半年經濟金融形勢以及全球銀行業發展趨勢。
關於全球經濟金融形勢，《報告》認為，2023年二季度，全球經濟下行勢頭有所放緩，主要經濟體通脹持續回落，但復甦分化特徵日益突出，全球服務業穩定復甦，製造業和商品貿易部門復甦較疲軟。美歐央行繼續加息，美元指數和美債收益率上行，跨境資本回流美國，全球股市區域分化明顯。展望三季度，全球服務業和製造業復甦分化將持續，全球流動性持續收緊將對投融資、居民消費和經濟增長帶來較大影響。美歐加息周期即將迎來拐點，全球美元債券違約潮預計延續，能源市場仍存不確定性，股市或維持震盪格局。
關於中國經濟金融形勢，《報告》認為，2023年上半年,需求收縮、供給衝擊、預期轉弱三重壓力逐步緩解，國內需求對經濟增長的貢獻提高，中國一季度GDP增長4.5%，好於市場預期，二季度預計GDP增長6%左右。展望下半年，在促消費政策、服務消費加快釋放的帶動下，消費有望保持溫和修復，基建投資將繼續較快增長，高技術產業投資對投資增長帶來支撐，房地產市場有望逐步探底恢復。預計三季度GDP增長4.9%左右，全年增長5.4%左右。
關於全球銀行業發展形勢，《報告》認為，2023年三季度，全球金融體系不確定性依舊存在，銀行業仍面臨經營壓力：信用風險和流動性風險突出；信貸需求乏力，貸款標準有所提高，減緩資產規模擴張速度；金融市場波動分化，資本補充遭遇一定阻礙；非息業務恢復效果欠佳，盈利總體有所下降。就中國而言，經濟復甦持續，銀行業主動作為，加大支持實體經濟力度，穩步提升資產負債規模；業務發展量效並重，主動適應LPR下行趨勢，整體盈利保持穩定；持續強化風險應對能力，資產質量延續向好態勢；加強多元化資本補充能力，夯實風險防控基石。
Moving on to regional highlights
區域觀察
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The sales area and supply of newly-built houses in Shanghai soared to the highest this year in June. Over 1 million square meters of new commercial houses were sold in Shanghai last month, up 40.6 percent from May, according to data from the local branch of market information provider Centaline Property yesterday. The total area of houses on the market in the city soared 57.8 percent to more than 1.2 million sqm in the period. Meanwhile, the average housing price in the eastern Chinese megacity rose 2.2 percent to 64,593 yuan per sqm in June from the previous month.
6月上海新建住宅成交面積創年內新高：3日消息，據上海中原地產數據顯示，6月上海新建商品住宅供應面積達123萬平方米，環比增加57.8%，也是上半年供應面積最多的一次。從成交情況來看，6月上海新建商品住宅成交面積102.8萬平方米，環比增加40.6%，成交面積創上半年新高。受結構性因素影響，6月均價為64593元/平方米，環比上漲2.2%。
Greater Bay Area, Greater future
新使命，大未來
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Business confidence in the Greater Bay Area has slid amid a slowdown in economic recovery, according to the latest survey conducted by Standard Chartered Hong Kong and Hong Kong Trade Development Council. The survey showed that the GBA Business Confidence Index softened to the 50 neutral mark in the second quarter after leaping to 51.3 in the first three months. However, the expectations index remained buoyant at 58.7, the second-highest reading in two years, pointing to expansion in the third quarter. The index for fixed-asset investment stood at 52.9, indicating a positive business outlook perceived by respondents in the area as they acknowledged the need to invest in capacity expansion.
大灣區企業信心預期指數至兩年內次高：7月4日，渣打銀行與香港貿易發展局公布2023年第二季「渣打大灣區營商景氣指數」 (GBAI)顯示，第二季度的「營商信心」現狀指數回落至50的中性水平，但「預期指數」達到58.7，仍保持在擴張區間，為近兩年來的次高值。數據顯示，各項子指數在第一季度全面上升後，本季度的表現開始出現差異。「固定資產投資」在各組成部分中得分最高，為52.9分，這表明受訪者對大灣區商業前景保持樂觀，承認有必要投資於產能擴張，以適應需求進一步正常化的預期。同時，第二季度信貸「預期指數」也保持擴張。渣打認為，這反映了區內企業對潛在增長的樂觀預期，而預期和信貸指數均表明第三季度將進一步復甦。
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Construction of five large liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with the world's largest single tank capacity of 270,000 cubic meters completed the main structure on Monday. Named Jinwan "Green Energy Port" in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, the facility is the second phase of the largest natural gas storage and transportation base being built in the Greater Bay Area, according to China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC).
5座全球最大LNG儲罐落戶大灣區：7月3日，中國海油對外宣布，隨著5座全球單罐容量最大的27萬立方米液化天然氣儲罐完成穹頂澆築作業，金灣「綠能港」二期項目實現主體結構完工，向項目投產運營又邁出關鍵一步。該項目建成後，將大幅提升粵港澳大灣區和華南地區的天然氣調峰保供能力。中國海油金灣「綠能港」位於廣東省珠海市金灣區高欄港，一期項目於2013年投產，液化天然氣年處理能力為350萬噸，二期項目是國家石油天然氣基礎設施重點工程，採用的27萬立方米全球最大LNG儲罐。
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The Northbound Bond Connect recorded a total trading volume of 972.9 billion yuan in May, the highest since the mechanism that allows foreign investors to trade Chinese mainland bonds was launched in July 2017. The average daily turnover also soared to a record high of 46.3 billion yuan in May, according to the latest data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
「北向通」5月成交量創新高：7月3日，「債券通」「北向通」正式啟動滿6周年。最新數據顯示，2023年5月，「北向通」成交9729億元，月度日均成交量為463億元，均創歷史新高。截至5月末，「北向通」入市投資者達798家，較2017年末增加624家。
Next on industry and company news
產業及公司新聞
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Shares of leading Chinese gallium and germanium producers jumped today after China said it will start controlling the exports of the two key semiconductor raw materials from next month. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs said in a notice on Monday that gallium-related items, including gallium nitride, gallium arsenide, and indium gallium arsenide, and germanium-related products, such as zinc germanium phosphide, germanium epitaxial growth substrate, and germanium dioxide, can be exported only with special export licenses starting August 1, to safeguard national security and interests.
兩部門宣布鍺、鎵出口全面管制：7月3日，商務部、海關總署聯合發布《關於對鎵、鍺相關物項實施出口管制的公告》，自2023年8月1日起正式實施。根據《公告》，實施出口管制涉及鎵相關物項有：金屬鎵、氮化鎵、氧化鎵、磷化鎵、砷化鎵、銦鎵砷、硒化鎵、銻化鎵。涉及鍺相關物項有：金屬鍺、區熔鍺錠、磷鍺鋅、鍺外延生長襯底、二氧化鍺、四氯化鍺。7月4日，有色鍺、鎵相關板塊走高，多家行業龍頭開盤漲停。
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China's centrally administered state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are ramping up investment in the first five months of the year, as their investment jumped 12.5 percent on a yearly basis to reach 1.7 trillion yuan. Among them, fixed-asset investment excluding that in the real estate sector stood at 1 trillion, up 20.4 percent year-on-year, latest data from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council showed on Monday.
前5個月央企完成投資1.7萬億元：7月4日消息，國務院國資委最新數據顯示，今年1至5月，中央企業完成投資1.7萬億元，同比增長12.5%。其中，固定資產投資（不含房地產）完成1萬億元，同比增長20.4%。
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Tesla said on Monday that it produced 479,700 vehicles and delivered 466,140 units in the second quarter this year, up 86 percent and 83 percent year-on-year respectively. The Model 3 and the Model Y combined accounted for the lion's share of the US electric car marker's deliveries in the quarter, totaling 446,915 units. Separately, Telsa announced that two flagship EVs will be discounted by between 35,000 and 45,000 yuan in China for the first time as it sticks to prioritizing sales growth over profits. From July 1, Model S and Model X are priced at 773,900 and 863,900 yuan each.
特斯拉二季度全球交付超46.6萬輛：美國電動汽車製造商特斯拉公司當地時間2日發布的2023年第二季度電動汽車生產及交付報告顯示，該季度特斯拉共交付超46.6萬輛電動汽車，創下公司單季度交付量新高。報告顯示，今年第二季度特斯拉電動汽車總產量為479700輛，較去年同期增長約86%；總交付量為466140輛，較去年同期增長約83%。此外，特斯拉7月1日宣布，用戶只需購買現車的全新Model S/X兩款車型，就能享受3.5萬元至4.5萬元的優惠。計入優惠福利後，Model S 雙電機全輪驅動版77.39萬元起售、Model S Plaid三電機全輪驅動版98.89萬元起售；Model X 雙電機全輪驅動版現車價86.39萬元起、Model X Plaid 三電機全輪驅動版現車價101.39萬元起。
Switching gears to financial news
金融市場消息
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Major banks in China have lowered their US dollar deposit rates for the second time in a month, several banking sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, as authorities have stepped up efforts to arrest a slide in the yuan. Interest rates offered by multiple lenders including state-owned banks on most dollar deposits are now capped at 2.8 percent, down from 4.3 percent previously for large deposits, insiders said.
多行下調美元存款利率到2.8%：7月3日，媒體從多家主要銀行處了解到，當天多家銀行網點紛紛下調了境內美元存款產品的利率報價，從最高4.3%降低至2.8%，原本5萬美元以上、年利率4.3%的產品已被取消。
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Ruizhong Life Insurance has been given the regulatory green light to start business, taking over Huaxia Life Insurance, a troubled insurer seized by Chinese financial regulators in 2020, and becoming the country's largest insurer. Ruizhong Life has a registered capital of 56.5 billion yuan, with Beijing-based equity investment fund partnership Jiuzhou Qihang Fund owning 60 percent and China Insurance Security Fund the rest, a document from the National Administration of Financial Regulation showed yesterday.
瑞眾人壽開業獲批：7月3日下午，金融監管總局官網公布批文，已於6月28日批覆同意瑞眾人壽保險有限責任公司開業，並接受北京銀保監局的屬地監督管理。瑞眾人壽註冊資本達到565億元，一舉成為中國壽險業註冊資本第一高。根據批文，瑞眾人壽有兩大股東。其中，九州啟航（北京）股權投資基金（有限合夥）出資339億元，持股比例60%；中國保險保障基金有限責任公司出資226億元，持股比例40%。
Wrapping up with a quick look at the stock market
股市收盤情況
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Chinese stocks continued to rise on Tuesday on economic stimulus hopes. The benchmark Shanghai Composite edged up 0.04 percent, while the Shenzhen Component gained 0.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also climbed 0.6 percent and the TECH index added 0.5 percent.
A股港股繼續上揚：周二A股大盤窄幅震盪，三大指數均小幅上漲。截至收盤，滬指漲0.04%，深成指漲0.35%，創業板指漲0.2%。滬深兩市今日成交額9293億，較上個交易日縮量858億。北向資金全天淨賣出19.5億元。港股全天震盪走強，恆指收漲0.57%，恒生科技指數收漲0.5%。
Biz Word of the Day
財經詞彙劃重點
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Both galliumandgermaniumare key in the making of semiconductors and other electronics. Gallium nitride is one of the most used third-generation semiconductor materials in the fifth-generation base station, new energy vehicle charging pile, and consumer electronics fields. It has high-frequency, high-efficiency, and high-power capabilities. Germanium is another excellent semiconductor, mostly used in fields such as semiconductors, aerospace measurement and control, nuclear physics detectors, fiber-optic communication, infrared optics, solar cells, chemical catalysts, and biomedicine.
鎵有「電子工業脊樑」之稱，在半導體行業和太陽能電池行業得到廣泛應用，目前需求正不斷增加。金屬鎵可用於氣體傳感器、太陽能電池、稀土永磁材料，以及砷化鎵、氮化鎵等化合物半導體。鍺是天然的優良半導體，廣泛應用於半導體、光纖通訊、紅外光學、太陽能電池、化學催化劑、生物醫學等領域。
Executive Editor: Sonia YU
Editor: LI Yanxia
Host: Stephanie LI
Writer: Stephanie LI
Sound Editor: Stephanie LI
Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni
Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.
Presented by SFC
編委: 於曉娜
策劃、編輯：李艷霞
播音：李瑩亮
撰稿：李瑩亮
音頻製作：李瑩亮
設計：鄭文靜、廖苑妮
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