俄國網友:歐洲在默克爾卸任後變得更加混亂,她留下了什麼遺產?

今濤拍案 發佈 2022-05-18T03:24:00.354561+00:00

默克爾還設法減少了德國政府債務,這是自1969年以來的首次,1969年至2013年間,德國的債務每年都在增加,自2014年以來,德國現在建立了平衡帳目,即不產生新債務,讓歐債危機和希臘危機不會再德國身上重演。

今年國際風雲變幻,原有格局被徹底打破,山雨欲來風滿樓,這讓許多歐洲人感到岌岌可危,德國政治分析人士湯姆福迪刊發評論感嘆道, 美國回來了,歐洲夢破滅了,默克爾的偉大政治遺產被摧毀了。在美版知乎Quora上,俄羅斯網友提問道:歐洲在默克爾卸任後變得更加混亂,她留下了什麼遺產?這個問題引起了各國網友的圍觀和熱議,我們看看他們的回答。


In my opinion, Merkel's position as chancellor is the most competent since Germany's reunification in 1990.

在我看來,默克爾的總理職位是德國自1990年統一以來最稱職的。

In the 1990s and early 2000s, Germany's GDP growth has been lower than the European average. Since Merkel came to power in 2005, the situation has gradually reversed, and Germany's GDP growth is gradually higher than the European average. Germany has changed from the "sick man of Europe" 16 years ago to the recognized economic star in the EU, which gives Germany a stronger confidence and voice within the EU.

在20世紀90年代和2000年代初,德國的GDP增長一直低於歐洲平均水平,自2005年默克爾上台以來,局面漸漸翻轉,德國的GDP增長逐漸高於歐洲平均水平,把德國從16年前的「歐洲病夫」變為如今歐盟內公認的經濟明星,這讓德國在歐盟內部有了更強的底氣和話語權。

Before Merkel took office, Germany's unemployment rate was the highest in history. Since Merkel took office, she has implemented reform and the unemployment rate has been falling. The unemployment rate in Germany is the lowest since reunification, and the employed population is the highest in history. At present, the unemployment rate is also the lowest in Europe.

在默克爾上任之前,德國的失業率是歷史上最高的,默克爾上台以來,她厲行改革,失業率一直在下降。德國現在的失業率是統一以來最低的,就業人口是有史以來最高的,疫情當前,其失業率也是歐洲最低的。

Merkel also managed to reduce Germany's government debt for the first time since 1969. Germany's debt increased every year from 1969 to 2013. Since 2014, Germany has now established a balanced account, that is, it does not generate new debt (different from 95% of other European countries), so that the European debt crisis and Greek crisis will not be repeated in Germany.

默克爾還設法減少了德國政府債務,這是自1969年以來的首次,1969年至2013年間,德國的債務每年都在增加,自2014年以來,德國現在建立了平衡帳目,即不產生新債務(與歐洲其他國家的95%不同),讓歐債危機和希臘危機不會再德國身上重演。

So from an economic point of view, you can say that Merkel is very successful.

所以從經濟角度來看,你可以說默克爾非常成功。

Another important (though underestimated) thing Merkel did was to improve child care policies.

默克爾做的另一件重要(儘管被低估)事情是改善兒童的保育政策。

Before Merkel, childcare was a disaster in Germany. Children under the age of 3 also do not have childcare services. This policy is the main reason why Germany has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, because many women do not want to have children because their childcare services are poor (so mothers have to stop working when giving birth). In the past 10 years, Germany has spent a lot of money to improve child care, which is very positive.

在默克爾之前,兒童保育在德國是一場災難。3歲以下的兒童也沒有兒童保育服務,這項政策是德國成為世界上生育率最低的國家之一的主要原因,因為許多女性不想生孩子,因為他們的育兒服務很差(因此母親生孩子時不得不停止工作)。在過去的10年裡,德國花費了大量資金來改善兒童保育,這是非常積極的。

She has many valuable qualities in politicians.

她擁有許多政治家身上難能可貴的品質。

1. She has a firm will and has never been coerced by populism.

1.她意志堅定,從不被民粹裹挾。

2. She is a brave person. She has the courage to accept mistakes and strive for improvement.

2.她是一個勇敢的人,勇於接受錯誤並努力改進。

3. Although she is strict, she is very easy-going and polite.

3.她雖然嚴厲但非常隨和有禮貌。

4. She is a shrewd politician and the Iron Lady of the whole EU.

4.她是精明的政治家,也是整個歐盟的鐵娘子。

5. Her party, the CDU, is a very popular party in Germany. Other candidates are not as popular or famous as her, and this popularity is due to her taking the most effective measures for the development of Germany compared with the former prime minister.

5.她的政黨基民盟在德國是一個非常受歡迎的政黨,其他候選人沒有她那麼受歡迎或出名,而且這種受歡迎是由於她對德國的發展採取了與前任總理相比最為有效的措施。

Angela Merkel's expression of respect is very important when she is in power, and people will not show much respect for her in the international meeting.

觀察安格拉·默克爾(AngelaMerkel)在政治集會和重要的國際會議上的表現,你會發現她很有耐心,她只有一種表情,而且她的肢體語言也不會透露太多信息,人們都敬仰一位能夠在壓力下執政的冷靜領袖。

7. Under the male dominated regime, Angela Merkel has all these qualities, which are very valuable. Although Germany is a developed country, it is unacceptable for some German groups to lead a country with a strong and powerful woman. She has always maintained her position and faced controversy. Every political decision of her is extremely difficult. Because of her attitude towards refugees and foreign aid to Eastern European countries, she is also a respected figure in the world.

7.在男性主導的政權下,安格拉·默克爾具備所有這些的品質都非常難能可貴。儘管德國是一個發達國家,但一位堅強有力的女性領導一個國家是一些德國團體所不能接受的,她現在一直保持著自己的立場,面臨爭議,她的每項政治決定都極度艱難。由於她對待難民和向東歐國家提供外援的態度,她在國際上也是一位受人尊敬的人物。

Merkel is rational and pragmatic in diplomacy. She advocates multilateralism, opposes conflict and confrontation, and is committed to promoting friendly exchanges and practical cooperation between Germany and Europe with China. She knows that in the face of such an Oriental giant, cooperation is much better than confrontation.

默克爾在外交上理性務實。她倡導多邊主義,反對衝突對抗,致力於推動德國和歐洲對華友好交往和務實合作。她懂得面對這樣一位東方巨人,合作要比對抗好得多。


Merkel's status as a European leader is not because she is the leader of Germany, the EU's most populous and industrialized country. On the contrary, the memory of World War II prompted all German leaders to adopt a low-key attitude and avoid imposing their proposed solutions on EU partners. Merkel's way of governance explains why she can become the leader of the whole Europe.

默克爾作為歐洲領導人的地位並不是因為她是歐盟人口最多、工業化程度最高的國家德國的領導人,恰恰相反,二戰的記憶促使所有德國領導人採取低調態度,避免將其提出的解決方案強加給歐盟夥伴。默克爾的執政方式解釋了她為何能成為整個歐洲的領導人。

默克爾的執政方式/Merkel's ruling style

Whenever she faced a crisis, she would make the right decision at the last minute, because it turned out that with her intervention, even various opponents could not find any mistakes. Then, instead of "guiding" EU partners in how to act, she "guided" them to a position they might consider acceptable, even if they did not achieve their initial goals. The Greek debt crisis is Merkel's masterpiece:

每當她面臨危機時,她都會在最後一刻做出正確決定,因為事實證明,在她的干預下,連各種反對者都無法找到一點紕漏。然後,她不會「指導」歐盟夥伴如何行事,而是「引導」他們走向一個他們可能認為可以接受的立場,即使沒有達到最初的目標。希臘債務危機就是默克爾的得意之作:

Merkel's first challenge after taking office was the European debt crisis. The European debt crisis is actually a mine laid by the United States for the European Union. The euro was born in 1999. The United States tried to fight the euro through the Kosovo war, but failed in the end.

默克爾上台後的第一任挑戰是歐債危機。歐債危機實為美國給歐盟埋的雷,1999年歐元誕生,美國曾試圖通過科索沃戰爭來打擊歐元,但最終失敗。

Unwilling Americans decided to bury mines in the euro zone. In 2001, the United States greatly reduced the Greek government debt ratio by making false accounts for Greece, and successfully sent Greece to the euro zone. After that, the United States lured Greece into borrowing through various capital instruments, and finally made it full of debt.

不甘心的美國人於是決心給歐元區埋雷,2001年,美國通過給希臘做假帳的的方式,讓希臘政府債務率大大降低,並成功將希臘送入歐元區。之後,美國又通過各種資本工具,引誘希臘借債,最終使其債務累累。

The global financial crisis in 2008 severely hit the world economy. Greece, which relies on shipping and tourism, fell into recession and the government was facing bankruptcy, which became the fuse of the European debt crisis. Moreover, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and other countries also face similar problems. Once the European debt crisis is not handled properly, the eurozone will have to disintegrate.

2008年全球金融危機嚴重打擊了世界經濟,依賴航運和旅遊的希臘經濟陷入衰退,政府面臨破產,成為歐債危機的導火索。不僅如此,西班牙、葡萄牙、義大利、愛爾蘭等國也面臨類似問題,一旦歐債危機處理不當,歐元區就得解體。

Soon, the pressure was transmitted to Germany, because as the largest economic country in Europe, and has implemented strict fiscal discipline for a long time, all countries hope that Germany, which has a fiscal surplus, will give Relief. However, Merkel knows that relying on water to save the economy will only cure the symptoms rather than the root cause. If she wants to completely solve the crisis, she can only choose the way of fiscal tightening.

很快壓力就都轉導到了德國這邊,因為作為歐洲第一經濟大國,且長期實行嚴格財政紀律,各國都希望擁有財政盈餘的德國給與救濟。但默克爾深知靠放水來救經濟,只會治標不治本,如果想徹底解決危機,只能選擇緊縮財政的方式。

But at that time, the Greek government directly chose to let things go hang and rot, and forced Germany to provide relief under the threat of brexit. Worthy of being a political strongman, Merkel withstood the pressure of public opinion and publicly stated: "if Greece does not implement fiscal austerity and continues to choose high welfare policy, Germany will let Greece exit the eurozone." This makes the Greeks dumbfounded, because Greece is nothing after leaving the eurozone. They originally wanted to blackmail more money, but Merkel was so tough.

但當時希臘政府直接選擇躺平擺爛,以退歐為威脅逼迫德國救濟。不愧是政治強人,默克爾頂住輿論壓力,公開表態:「如果希臘不執行財政緊縮,繼續選擇高福利政策,德國將放手讓希臘退出歐元區。」這就把希臘人嚇破了膽,因為離開歐元區,希臘毫無價值,他們本來就是想多訛點錢,沒想到默克爾卻如此強硬。

Out of resentment, the Greeks discredited Merkel as a Nazi and rumoured that she was Hitler's granddaughter. Public opinion in the European Union also believed that Merkel wanted to take advantage of the European debt crisis to unify Europe economically and politically and complete the mission that the Third Reich failed to complete.

出於怨恨,希臘人將默克爾抹黑成納粹,造謠她是希特勒的外孫女,歐盟的輿論也認為默克爾想趁歐債危機的機會在經濟和政治上統一歐洲,完成第三帝國沒能完成的使命。

However, three years later, public opinion completely changed its tune, because facts have proved that Merkel's line is right. Relief will only cultivate lazy people. The root cause of Greece's debt crisis lies in uncontrolled government spending and high social welfare. This means of pleasing voters can only last for a while, not for a lifetime.

不過3年後,輿論完全變了個調,因為事實證明默克爾的路線是對的,救濟只會培養懶漢,希臘債務危機的根源在於無節制的政府開支和高昂的社會福利,這種討好選民的手段只能維持一時不能維持一世。

Greece, which adopted fiscal austerity, finally came out of the debt crisis, and other southern European countries also came out of recession one after another. Germany finally avoided the division of the eurozone, stabilized the economy and adhered to the tradition of strict fiscal discipline. Without relying on water to stimulate the economy, Germany's macro leverage ratio did not rise but fell, becoming one of the few countries in the world to successfully achieve deleveraging, and house prices were also controlled at a low level.

採取財政緊縮的希臘最終走出了債務危機,其他南歐國家也陸續走出衰退。德國最終避免了歐元區分裂,也穩定了經濟,堅持了嚴守財政紀律的傳統。由於沒有靠放水刺激經濟,德國宏觀槓桿率不升反降,成為全球為數不多的成功實現去槓桿的大國,房價也控制在較低水平。

Instigated by the United States, conflicts and crises within the EU are inevitable: between various institutions, "conservatives" and "radicals", countries more or less divided by climate change, and so on.

在美國的挑唆下歐盟內部的衝突和危機是不可避免的:各種機構之間,「保守派」和「激進派」之間,或多或少因氣候變化產生分歧的國家之間等等。

Can macron succeed Merkel as EU leader? I personally doubt this because his style is completely opposite to that of Merkel. He first set out his goals and then tried to convince EU partners of their wishes. His approach is likely to exacerbate rather than reduce conflicts among EU Member States.

馬克龍能否成功接替默克爾擔任歐盟領導人?我個人對此表示懷疑,因為他的風格與默克爾完全相反,他首先闡述了自己的目標,然後試圖說服歐盟夥伴相信他們的願望。他的做法很可能會加劇而不是減少歐盟成員國之間的衝突。

I think only one politician can follow Merkel's example, Michelle Barnier. Despite the differences in the interests of EU Member States, he has just succeeded in maintaining the EU United Front in the brexit negotiations, which is a considerable achievement.

我認為只有一位政治家能夠效仿默克爾的做法,那就是米歇爾·巴尼耶,歐盟首席談判代表。儘管歐盟各成員國的利益存在分歧,但他剛剛成功地在脫歐談判中保持了歐盟的統一戰線,這是一個相當大的成就。

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