決策者 | 發揮「金磚+」機制的倍增效應

cgtn 發佈 2022-06-25T08:34:22.109146+00:00

Such an extended platform across all three continents of the Global South may be termed as TRIA , and it comprises nearly 125 to 130 developing economies . This second sequence of extending the 「BRICS Plus」 platform results in a 「five times five times five」 geometric progression – or the five BRICS economies taken to the power of three.

Editor's note: Decision Makers is a global platform for decision makers to share their insights on events shaping today's world. Yaroslav Lissovolik is the Program Director with the Valdai discussion club and a member of the Russian International Affairs Council. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

編者按:《決策者》是全球決策制定者分享對國際大事見解的平台。雅羅斯拉夫·利薩沃利克 (Yaroslav Lissovolik)是瓦爾代(Valdai)國際辯論俱樂部項目主管和俄羅斯國際事務委員會成員。本文僅為作者個人觀點,不代表CGTN立場。

The main hallmark of China's chairmanship of the BRICS grouping in 2022 has been the unveiling of plans to institutionalize the "BRICS Plus" format and explore the possibilities of expanding the core of the BRICS bloc. The current debate regarding the future trajectories of the "BRICS Plus" format centers on whether the expansion of the bloc is to proceed one by one via adding new countries to the BRICS core, or through the format of "integration of integrations," namely the creation of a platform for the cooperation of regional arrangements in which BRICS countries are members.

2022年,中國接任金磚國家主席國,其標誌性的成果是出台了一系列規劃,來推動「金磚+」合作機制走向制度化並探索金磚國家擴容的可能性。目前,針對「金磚+」機制未來發展的探討主要集中於擴容路徑:是吸納新的國家加入,還是採用「一體化組織整合」模式,即創建以金磚國家為成員的區域組織合作平台。

At this stage it appears that both tracks are possible and have their pros and cons. But there is one factor in the regional "integration of integrations" model that has particular merit – it is the "BRICS Plus" multiplier that allows for a significant extension in the outreach undertaken by core BRICS economies with respect to the rest of the Global South.

就目前來看,兩種路徑均有可能且各有利弊。但區域性「一體化組織整合」模式有一個突出的優勢,即「金磚+ 」機制的倍增效應可極大拓展金磚國家與其他「全球南方」國家間的合作。

In terms of scale, the effects of the two formats of BRICS expansion may be mathematically illustrated by the difference between the arithmetic and geometric progressions. If the one-by-one expansion in the core of the BRICS grouping represents the minimalism of the arithmetic progression, the "BRICS Plus" format of "integration of integrations" can be seen as a far more extensive and ambitious undertaking characterized by a geometric progression.

從規模上來看,兩種路徑可以用算數級數和幾何級數之間的差異來解釋。如果將吸納單一國家加入的漸進式擴容方法看做算數級數,那麼以「一體化組織整合」為路徑的「金磚+ 」 模式則是範圍和影響力都更為宏大的幾何級數。

With respect to the arithmetic progression, the waves of the expansion in the BRICS core may involve a sequential addition of one or several countries representing the most significant heavyweights (possibly members of G20 from the Global South). The alternative is the aggregation of the regional integration blocs of all of the five BRICS members – represented by the "BEAMS" platforms consisting of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area, Mercosur and the South African Customs Union – leading to the addition of up to 25 members (the five-times-five geometric progression – or the five BRICS taken to the power of two) of the "BRICS Plus" circle that are the regional neighbors or partners of BRICS economies.

在算數級數模式下,金磚國家可能會通過數輪擴容逐步吸納一個或多個最具影響力的國家加入(例如二十國集團中的「全球南方」國家成員)。而幾何級數模式則可推動實現金磚五國各自參與的區域性一體化組織的疊加——最具代表性的是由環孟加拉灣多領域經濟技術合作倡議、 歐亞經濟聯盟、中國-東協自由貿易區、南方共同市場和南部非洲關稅同盟組成的「BEAMS」平台——使擴容數量最多增至25個(5x5或者金磚五國經濟體的平方),形成由金磚五國在各自區域的鄰國和夥伴組成的「金磚+」朋友圈。

This "BRICS Plus" geometric progression can be taken further to the next level whereby a wider circle of countries is included into the enlarged platform that comprises the African Union in Africa, Community of Latin American and Caribbean States in Latin America and the Eurasian economies from the Global South.

「金磚+」幾何級數還可進一步升級,通過吸納非洲聯盟、拉丁美洲及加勒比國家共同體以及屬於「全球南方」的歐亞大陸經濟體擴大平台規模,將更多國家納入合作機制。

The Eurasian constellation of developing economies can be formed on the basis of the aggregation of the main regional integration blocs such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Gulf Cooperation Council, ASEAN, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, and the EAEU.

對歐亞大陸發展中國家的吸收可以通過諸如上海合作組織、海灣阿拉伯國家合作委員會、東協、南亞區域合作聯盟和歐亞經濟聯盟等主要區域性一體化組織實現。

Such an extended platform across all three continents of the Global South may be termed as TRIA (Trilateral Intercontinental Alliance), and it comprises nearly 125 to 130 developing economies (depending on the exact methodological approach of including the Eurasian economies). This second sequence of extending the "BRICS Plus" platform results in a "five times five times five" geometric progression – or the five BRICS economies taken to the power of three.

這樣一個跨越「全球南方」三個大洲的廣闊合作平台可以稱為 「三大洲洲際合作組織」,其成員包括125到130個發展中經濟體(確切數量取決於吸納歐亞大陸經濟體的具體方法)。這樣,對「金磚+」平台的第二輪擴容就可實現5x5x5的幾何級數,或者金磚五國經濟體的立方。

Yang Jiechi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, chairs the 12th Meeting of BRICS National Security Advisers and High Representatives on National Security via video link, June 15, 2022. /China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs


These stages of progression in the extension of the "BRICS Plus" circle can be taken to an even higher level if one is to account for all of the bilateral or plurilateral trade deals, digital alliances and other accords that may be multilateralized on the basis of the "BRICS Plus" platform. For example, the Israel-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement or the Southern African Customs Union-the European Free Trade Association Free Trade Agreement could be extended to include more developing countries from the "BRICS Plus" circle.

如果將所有雙邊或多邊貿易協議、數字聯盟和其他可通過「金磚+」平台實現多邊化的組織也考慮在內,那麼「金磚+」機制的幾何級數式擴容還可以實現進一步升級。例如,以色列-南方共同市場自由貿易協定或南部非洲關稅同盟-歐洲自由貿易聯盟自由貿易協定都可以通過吸納更多「金磚+」機制中的發展中國家成員來擴大規模。

At this stage the combinatorics of matching and aggregating the multitudes of alliances along the "BRICS Plus" platform kicks in – each of the main regions and regional integration grouping from the Global South has its own cobweb of alliances that can be shared throughout this extended network of Global South.

在現階段,「金磚+」平台正在納入更多一體化聯盟或推動這些聯盟間的匹配組合。「全球南方」的各個主要區域和區域性一體化組織都有自己的聯盟網絡,可通過「金磚+」機制這一廣泛性的「全球南方」合作網絡實現共享。

Such additional multiplier effects will be all the more powerful, the greater the openness and inclusiveness of the aggregated "BRICS Plus" platform and the more connectivity there is across the alliances concluded by developing economies with their partners from across the globe. In other words, in order to enable the multiplier effects to be increased, the "BRICS Plus" platform of "integration of integrations" needs to be predicated on alliances that are scalable and capable of connecting with other regional blocs (regional alliances that can be "globalized").

如果「金磚+」平台更開放、更包容,並且由發展中國家同全球合作夥伴構成的同盟之間建立更加緊密的聯繫,那麼倍增效應將會進一步增強。換言之,為了加強倍增效應,「一體化組織整合」模式下的「金磚+」平台需要依賴於具備可擴展性並能夠與其他區域性集團合作的聯盟(即可實現「全球化」的區域性聯盟)。

This in turn may be facilitated by particular emphasis placed on building platforms for regional development institutions (with standardized protocols for investment projects, including with respect to public to private partnerships); greater scope for digital economic alliances that may be particularly amenable to scale and replication.

反過來,著力打造區域性發展機制(需具備針對公私合作夥伴的標準化投資協議)和大力發展可擴展和可複製的數字經濟聯盟將會促進上述目標的達成。

In sum, the "BRICS Plus" track of country-by-country additions to the BRICS core if pursued solely on its own without building a broader network of alliances may result in minor alterations to the status quo and a missed opportunity for the Global South and the broader global economy.

總而言之,如果漸進式擴容模式下的「金磚+」機制只關注自身,而不是力圖建立一個更加廣泛的聯盟網絡,那麼其現狀可能只是發生一些無關緊要的變化,同時「全球南方」乃至全球經濟也會錯失良機。

At the same time, the possibilities offered by the "integration of integrations" track for the "BRICS Plus" are substantial, provided that such a platform is open, inclusive and ensures connectivity across regional integration arrangements – this will deliver the much needed "multiplier effect" in the process of economic cooperation and can set off a new process of globalization that connects regional arrangements in the developed and the developing world.

相反,如果「一體化組織整合」模式下的「金磚+」能做到開放和包容,並確保各區域性一體化組織間的互聯互通,那麼這一擴容模式能夠創造無限可能。這將為經濟合作帶來亟需的「倍增效應」,並能夠啟動新的全球化進程,促進發達國家區域性組織和發展中國家區域性組織間的聯通。

Such a paradigm may be the real mission of BRICS after all – the value of BRICS is not in each member separately, but rather in them being connected together to form a construct that supports the edifice of the global economic architecture.

這一範式可能才是金磚國家的真正使命:金磚國家的價值不在於成員國各自的發展,而在於彼此攜手,共同構築並支撐全球經濟架構的大廈。

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