Sino-US relations are at their worst since I began my love affair with China with the adoption of two Chinese infants 22 years ago, followed by eight years as the FT's Shanghai bureau chief. The news that only around half as many mainlanders are coming to the US to study now as before the pandemic seems a harbinger of worse to come. International students are like unofficial ambassadors between their cultures — halving that group will do nothing to heal the rift between the superpowers.
自22年前我開始與中國結緣以來，中美關係正處於最糟糕的時期。當時我收養了兩名中國嬰兒，隨後擔任英國《金融時報》上海分社社長8年。有消息稱，目前赴美留學的中國內地人只有疫情前的一半左右，這似乎預示著更糟糕的情況即將到來。國際學生就像兩國文化之間的非正式大使——這個群體減半無益於彌合這兩個超級大國之間的裂痕。
Some have argued that US president Joe Biden's new export controls on semiconductors amount to declaring economic war against China. These kinds of geopolitical tensions have played a role in souring the Chinese view on studying in the US, according to Chinese educational consultants.
一些人認為，美國總統喬•拜登(Joe Biden)對半導體的新出口管制相當於向中國宣布經濟戰。中國教育顧問表示，這類地緣政治緊張局勢，在一定程度上讓中國人對赴美留學的看法轉向負面。
But based on interviews with Chinese students who cancelled or deferred plans to study in the US, and the consultants who advise them, there are plenty of other reasons too. These include the exorbitant cost of US university education, as well as America's reputation for shocking gun violence, growing anti-Asian racism and pandemic-related travel problems. The targeting of Chinese academics on US campuses as spies during the Trump administration also did nothing to help.
但根據對取消或推遲赴美留學計劃的中國學生以及為他們提供諮詢的顧問的採訪，還有很多其他原因。這些原因包括美國大學教育過高的費用、美國惡名昭著的可怕槍枝暴力、日益嚴重的反亞裔種族主義，以及與疫情相關的旅行問題。川普(Trump)政府將美國校園的中國學者視為間諜的做法則雪上加霜。
Years of explosive growth in the number of Chinese students in America had begun to plateau even before the pandemic, but numbers have plummeted since then. F1 student visas issued to Chinese mainlanders fell 45 per cent in the six months to the end of September from the comparable period in 2019, US state department figures show.
甚至在疫情之前，美國的中國留學生人數多年的爆炸式增長就已經開始趨於平緩，但自疫情爆發以來，人數急劇下降。美國國務院的數據顯示，在截至9月底的6個月裡，向中國內地人發放的F1學生簽證比2019年同期下降了45%。
Mainlanders are still going overseas to study, but more are choosing the UK, Singapore and Hong Kong, educational consultants say. Chinese students in the UK rose by 50 per cent between 2016-17 and 2020-21. And India displaced China in US student visa rankings over the past six months. F1 visas for Indian students rose to 87,029, well above China's 49,959, and almost three times the figure for India before the pandemic.
教育顧問表示，中國內地人仍在赴海外留學，但更多的人選擇了英國、新加坡和香港。2016-17年至2020-21年期間，在英國留學的中國學生人數增加了50%。過去6個月，印度在美國學生簽證排名中取代了中國。發放給印度學生的F1簽證增至87029份，遠高於中國的49959份，幾乎是疫情前印度學生簽證數量的三倍。
Janet, who prepares Chinese students to study overseas, tells me social media portrayals of crime in the US are a big factor. She says: 「Families are asking me, 『is America still safe? Are Chinese students getting discriminated against there?』」 Everyone I spoke to mentioned the fatal shooting in broad daylight of a Chinese student near the campus of the prestigious University of Chicago. I can sympathise: my Chinese daughter has just started a masters degree there, only to have three shootings (one deadly) outside her apartment building in the first weeks of term.
幫助中國學生做留學準備的珍妮特(Janet)告訴我，社交媒體上對美國犯罪的描述是一個重要因素。她說：「很多家庭問我，『美國還安全嗎？中國學生在那裡受歧視嗎？』」與我交談的每個人都提到了光天化日之下，一名中國學生在著名的芝加哥大學(University of Chicago)校園附近被槍殺的事件。我很同情：我的中國女兒剛剛在那裡開始讀碩士學位，但在開學的頭幾周，她的公寓大樓外就發生了三起槍擊事件（其中一起致人死亡）。
Janet is now providing self-defence lessons to clients applying to study in the US: 「before we just taught students how to write essays, now we're teaching them martial arts」. She says families who might previously have prioritised the US now keep their options open. She also worries that the US tightening of visa restrictions for Chinese students on security grounds will make more families shy away from there. One of her students was denied a visa to study game design in the US this year. 「This is the first time I've seen an undergraduate applicant rejected . . . and I don't think it will be the only case,」 she tells me.
珍妮特現在為申請赴美留學的客戶提供自衛課程：「以前我們只教學生如何寫論文，現在我們教他們武術。」她說，以前可能優先選擇美國的家庭現在對各種選擇持開放態度。她還擔心，美國以安全為由收緊對中國學生的簽證限制，將使更多家庭迴避赴美。她的一名學生今年申請赴美學習遊戲設計被拒簽。「這是我第一次看到本科生申請被拒……我不認為這是個例，」她告訴我。