Editor's note: Huang Yongfu is an economic affairs commentator. After earning a PhD, he started his career at the University of Cambridge and then moved on to the UN system. His current interests lie in global development and Sino-U.S. links. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
編者按：本文作者為經濟評論員黃永富博士，曾供職於劍橋大學，後進入聯合國，目前主要研究全球發展和中美關係。文章僅代表作者觀點，而非本台觀點。
On June 15, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its policy target by 0.75 percentage point, the largest interest-rate increase since 1994 after inflation rose 8.6 percent in May. The Fed signaled it would continue tightening policy this year at the most rapid pace in decades as it races to squelch inflation and cool the broader economy.
6月15日，美國聯邦儲備委員會將其目標利率提高了0.75個百分點，這是自1994年以來最大的一次加息。美聯儲還表示，今年將以數十年來最快的速度推動緊縮政策，以遏制通脹，為整體經濟降溫。
The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point on June 16 for the fifth consecutive time, but indicated larger moves might be needed to tame inflation. The European Central Bank is preparing to make its first rate increase in more than a decade in July.
6月16日英格蘭銀行連續第五次將基準利率上調0.25個百分點，還表示可能將採取更大的動作來抑制通脹。歐洲央行正準備在7月份進行十多年來的首次加息。
To avoid the daunting prospect of rate rises in the West, around 20 emerging-markets central banks such as those of Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Colombia, and Chile have been ratcheting up interest rates for months, especially when inflation started to rear its head.
為了避免發達國家相繼加息帶來的可怕前景，巴西、俄羅斯、南非、哥倫比亞、智利等約20個新興經濟體央行近幾個月來一直在逐步提高利率，尤其是在通脹剛抬頭之際。
Although no one knows for sure what effects rate hikes will have on the U.S. economy or whether rate hikes will be tipping the U.S. into a recession, developing economies face a perilous return to monetary normal. Higher rates in the U.S. and other advanced economies are expected to destabilize emerging and developing economies by fluctuating their currencies, driving capital out of their markets and into higher-yielding U.S. securities and pushing up their debt burden.
雖然沒有人能確切知道加息會對美國經濟產生什麼影響，或是否會使美國經濟陷入衰退，但發展中經濟體卻必須面對發達國家貨幣正常化帶來的危險局面。預計美國和其他發達經濟體的加息將在新興和發展中經濟體中造成幣值波動、資本外流（收益率較高的，如美國證券），並加重債務負擔，從而影響新興和發展中經濟體的經濟穩定。
A new dynamic of currencies repricing
貨幣定價出現新動態
Higher rates in America increase investors' appetite for dollars. As capital flocks to America to take advantage of higher rates or seek shelter during periods of market tumult, the dollar is strengthening. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, is up more than 5.5 percent year to date, reaching levels unseen in decades.
美聯儲加息將刺激投資者對美元的胃口，於是資本會大量湧入美國（為了獲利或尋求庇護），美元將升值。華爾街日報美元指數（衡量美元相對於一籃子貨幣的匯率變化指標）今年以來已上漲逾5.5%，達到數十年來前所未有的水平。
Usually, as the main global currency for reserves and trading, a stronger dollar often weakens emerging-markets currencies, increases funding costs and import prices, and hurts their economies in general.
通常，作為全球外匯儲備和貿易結算的主要貨幣，美元升值往往會削弱新興經濟體的貨幣，提高融資成本和進口價格，並損害其整體經濟。
However, the current strengthened dollar isn't driving emerging-markets currencies to depreciate as expected, upending traditional dynamics.
然而，當前的美元升值並沒有像預期的那樣導致新興經濟體的貨幣貶值，這顛覆了傳統的認知。
The Brazilian real has appreciated over 13 percent against the dollar year to date when the dollar was strengthening, while other currencies including the Chilean peso and South African rand have notched gains.
今年以來，巴西雷亞爾對美元升值超過13%，而包括智利比索和南非蘭特在內的其他貨幣也在上漲（應該是短期現象）。
That could be due to the sharpest commodities rally in modern trading history and varied central-bank policies worldwide that enable investors to scoop up currencies from higher commodity prices and trade dislocations.
這背後的原因可能是，近期的大宗商品價格經歷了堪稱現代世界貿易史上最大幅度的反彈，以及全球各國央行的各種政策，使得投資者能夠從大宗商品價格上漲和貿易混亂中攫取大量利潤（用以投資新興經濟體的貨幣）。
A new trend of capital flows
資本流動呈現新趨勢
When the Fed raises interest rates, capital shifts in and out of the global dollar-denominated assets. Ten years ago, some central banks, especially those of China and Japan, or official foreign investors managing their currency reserves, were the main holders of American Treasuries, holding about three-quarters of all Treasuries abroad.
當美聯儲加息時，資本將加速流出發展中經濟體，而流向以美元計價的資產。十年前，一些中央銀行 （或外國官方持有者），比如中國和日本的中央銀行，曾是美國國債的主要持有人，約持有美國國債的四分之三。
However, the latest developments have been the biggest foreign official holders of dollar assets being replaced by a burgeoning group of large private institutions, especially those pension funds and insurers in Asia catering to ageing population.
然而，最新的趨勢顯示，美元資產的持有人中，外國官方持有者正在被一批新興的大型私人機構所取代，尤其是那些為老齡化人口服務的亞洲養老基金和保險公司。
The largest single month foreign stashes of Treasuries have been observed for China, Japan and India among others. China's reserves fell by $68 billion in April, the largest monthly drop in more than five years, Japan's reserves declined by $31 billion, the biggest-ever monthly fall, while India's reserves shrank by $26 billion in March, the most since the market panic of October 2008.
近來，中國、日本和印度等國紛紛出現了單月最大規模的外匯儲備縮減。4月份，中國外匯儲備減少680億美元，為五年多來最大的月度降幅；日本外匯儲備減少310億美元，為有史以來最大的月度降幅；印度外匯儲備在3月份減少260億美元，為2008年10月市場恐慌以來的最大降幅。
While the share of Treasuries owned by official investors is falling, private foreign holdings have been exploding in recent years, making up the rest of the proportion.
官方投資者持有的美國國債占美國所有海外國債的比例已下降至58%，而近年來，外國私人投資者持有的美國國債的比率卻呈爆炸式增長，填補了剩餘的比例。
More specifically, the purchases of Treasuries by official investors can be swamped by private investors. For example, official investors sold $36 billion in Treasuries in the first quarter of this year, while foreign private investors snapped up $235 billion in Treasuries, the biggest haul in any quarter on record.
更具體地說，官方投資者的國債購買量相比私人投資者的購買量已經微不足道了。例如，今年第一季度，官方投資者賣出了360億美元的美國國債，而外國私人投資者則搶購了2350億美元的美國國債，這是有記錄以來任何一個季度的最大漲幅。
A new picture of debt proportion
外債占比出現新版圖
At a time when the Fed and other major central banks raised interest rates to tame inflation, from Islamabad to Cairo to Buenos Aires, those governments and businesses that have substantial debts denominated in U.S. dollars are struggling with rising debt bills on top of the continuing pandemic, due to a so-called currency-mismatch crisis in which developing borrowers must service dollar debt by paying ever greater amounts of their depreciating local currencies.
當美聯儲和西方其他主要央行加息以抑制通脹時，從伊斯蘭瑪巴德到開羅再到布宜諾斯艾利斯，那些擁有大量美國債務的政府和企業正在被不斷上升的債務帳單所困擾，不得不面對所謂的貨幣錯配危機，即發展中國家借款人必須支付更多的本幣（因為貶值）來償還美元債務。
Foreign debt distress could be felt due to exchange-rate fluctuations as the dollar is appreciating. To counteract the negative impact caused by a rising dollar, many developing economies' central banks could be forced to tighten monetary policy, raising costs to service debts in local currency.
美元升值必然導致以美元計價的外債的增加。許多發展中經濟體的央行為了抵消美元升值帶來的負面影響而收緊貨幣政策，本幣幣值會提高，償還（以本幣為單位的）債務的成本也就提高了。
The private sector inclusive of households and non-financial companies in developing economies has expanded an additional $5.8 trillion of debt over the past year, according to a recent report by the Institute of International Finance. A slow-down in demand in the U.S. and Europe due to elevated inflation would exacerbate developing economies' debt woes by hitting corporate income and tax revenue that the repayment to debt is relied on.
國際金融研究所（Institute of International Finance）最近的一份報告顯示，過去一年，發展中國家私營部門（包括家庭和非金融公司）新增了5.8萬億美元的債務。通貨膨脹導致了美國和歐洲的需求放緩，將影響企業收入和稅收收入 （償還債務所依賴的資金來源），從而加劇發展中經濟體的債務困難。
Combined global debts by public and private borrowers jumped by 28 percentage points to 256 percent of GDP in 2020, a level unseen after World War II. About 60 percent of low-income countries were at high risk of debt distress or already in distress in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
2020年，由公共和私人借款者組成的全球債務占全球GDP之比攀升至256%，相比前一年上升了28%，達到了二戰後前所未有的水平。據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）統計，2015年只有30%，而2020年已有約60%的低收入國家正在處於或已經處於債務困境的高風險之中。
China's share of external debts owed by the 73 highly indebted poor nations jumped to 18 percent in 2020 from 2 percent in 2006, while private-sector lending rose to 11 percent from 3 percent, according to the IMF. On contrary, the combined share of traditional lenders inclusive of "Paris Club" members of mostly wealthy Western governments and multilateral institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank fell to 58 percent from 83 percent.
根據IMF的數據，在73個重債窮國所欠外債中，中國政府為他們提供的貸款所占份額從2006年的2%躍升至2020年的18%，而私營部門提供的貸款則從3%上升至11%。相比之下，傳統貸款人（包括「巴黎俱樂部」所包括的富裕的西方國家和國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行等多邊金融機構）的總份額從83%下降到58%。
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