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今天小編為大家帶來
《複雜供應網絡系統風險評估》精讀。
歡迎您的用心訪問！
本期推文閱讀時長大約5分鐘，請您耐心閱讀。
Share interests, spread happiness,
increase knowledge, and leave beauty behind.
Dear you,
this is LearningYard Academy!
Today, the editor brings you intensive reading of "Systemic Risk Assessment in Complex Supply Networks".
Welcome your visit!
The reading time of this tweet is about 5 minutes, please read it with patience.
小編將從思維導圖、精讀內容、知識補充三個板塊為大家帶來《Systemic Risk Assessment in Complex Supply Networks》案例研究2。
I will bring you Case Study 2 of Systemic Risk Assessment in Complex Supply Networks from three sections: Mind Map, Intensive Reading Content, and Knowledge Supplement.
01思維導圖
02精讀內容
一、評估無向節點風險擴散的Katz中心性
1. Assessing Katz centrality of risk diffusion in undirected nodes
將Katz中心性應用到本田-謳歌的合約網絡中，評估無向節點的風險擴散。它是特徵向量中心性的一種變化，公式如下。
Katz centrality was applied to the Honda-Acura contract network to evaluate the risk spread of undirected nodes. It is a variation of eigenvector centrality and is formulated as follows.
其中CKi為節點i的Katz中心性，a為網絡的鄰接矩陣，κ1為鄰接矩陣的最大特徵值，βi為常數。使用Katz，因為原始的特徵向量中心性不包括節點特徵，但Katz包含。將未加權情況的βi替換為1，將加權情況的WRI替換為加權情況，以納入地緣政治風險。
Where CKi is the Katz centrality of node i, a is the adjacency matrix of the network, κ1 is the maximum eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix, and βi is a constant. Katz is used because the original eigenvector centrality does not include node features, but Katz does. Replace βi with 1 for the unweighted case and WRI with weighted case to incorporate geopolitical risk.
二、WRI
2. WRI
WRI是衡量自然災害和社會層面風險的指數。它由四個部分組成：暴露、易感性、應對和適應。暴露是一種自然災害風險，易感性是遭受傷害的可能性，應對是減少負面後果的能力，適應是為社會變革制定長期戰略的能力。該指數是按國家指定的。排名由173個國家組成，平均為7.40。WRI根據來自在線汽車資料庫Marklines的總部位置分配給每個節點。度量是針對未加權和WRI節點加權情況計算的。
The WRI is an index that measures risk at the natural hazard and societal levels. It is made up of four components: exposure, susceptibility, response and adaptation. Exposure is a natural hazard risk, susceptibility is the likelihood of suffering harm, coping is the ability to reduce negative consequences and adaptation is the ability to develop long-term strategies for social change. The index is designated by country. The ranking consists of 173 countries with an average of 7.40. The WRI is assigned to each node based on the location of its headquarters from the online automotive database Marklines. The metric is calculated for both unweighted and WRI node weighted cases.
三、結果分析
3. Analysis of results
下表是契約關係網絡中六個最高Katz中心的結果。
The table below shows the results for the six highest Katz centres in the contractual relationship network.
在未加權的情況下，最高的Katz是Intek和本田。這是因為他們管理著供應網絡中的大部分業務關係。Intek可以被認為是最關鍵的公司，因為它擁有最多的商業夥伴，它的合作夥伴本身也有很多關係。其他公司的Katz中心性得分也與其程度成正比。在節點加權的情況下，最高的Katz中心性為Intek。第二名是岩田博爾特，因為他們和兩個商業夥伴一起位於高風險地區，形成了一個高風險集群。Katz中心性較高的其他公司是Intek在當地WRI較高的業務合作夥伴。
In the unweighted case, the highest Katz are Intek and Honda. This is because they manage most of the business relationships in the supply network. intek can be considered the most critical company because it has the largest number of business partners and its partners themselves have many relationships. The other companies' Katz centrality scores are also proportional to their degree. With node weighting, the highest Katz centrality is Intek. second place goes to Iwata Bolt as they are located in a high risk area with two business partners forming a high risk cluster. the other companies with higher Katz centrality are Intek's business partners with high local WRI.
四、Katz中心性優點
4. Advantages of Katz centrality
傳統的無加權Katz中心性主要根據節點的程度和相鄰節點的程度來評估節點的風險。結合額外的信息，如WRI，能夠識別出易受地緣政治風險影響的公司，而這些公司使用傳統方法無法識別。Iwata Bolt、Microtech、Nihon、J1和J3是相對於其他公司度較小的公司，因此在未加權Katz中心性度量中被忽略。高WRI和接近其他高地緣政治風險暴露地點，使它們值得風險從業者關注。因此，Katz中心性可用於局部風險因素，以識別聚集在一起的高風險公司。這顯示了本地風險如何影響其鄰國的風險，從而形成系統性觀點。
Traditional unweighted Katz centrality assesses the risk of a node primarily based on the extent of the node and the extent of neighbouring nodes. Combining additional information such as WRI enables the identification of companies vulnerable to geopolitical risk that would not be identified using traditional methods.Iwata Bolt, Microtech, Nihon, J1 and J3 are companies with a small degree relative to others and are therefore ignored in the unweighted Katz centrality metric. The high WRI and proximity to other locations with high geopolitical exposure make them worthy of attention by risk practitioners. Katz centrality can therefore be used as a local risk factor to identify clustered high-risk companies. This shows how local risk can influence the risk of its neighbours, thus creating a systemic view.
03知識補充
Katz中心性公式變形：
Deformation of the Katz centrality formula:
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參考資料：Deepl、CSDN、百度
參考文獻：
[1]Ledwoch A, Brintrup A, Mehnen J, et al. Systemic risk assessment in complex supply networks [J]. IEEE Systems Journal, 2016, 12(2): 1826-1837.
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